The topic of peak oil and the changes our country, and moreover, our world, will face in the coming years, is a topic that is new to me, yet finding out some facts about peak oil has completely changed my outlook.
Peak oil. It's a concept that the United States experienced in the early 1970s when our domestic oil production "peaked", or began to level off, concerning how much oil was actually coming out of the ground here in our own country. Gas shortages, stations closing down, and high prices prompted mass usage of public transportation nation-wide. It was with this oil peak in the US that we began to purchase more and more oil from the Middle East. At that time, the US began to import oil from the Middle East at a rate of 5% more each year, and continued to grow at that level each following year. Oil that was priced at $3 a barrel (from the Middle East) was inflated to $12 a barrel almost instantaneously by Saudis and other oil producing countries as they saw our demand and consumption was so high, and so unstoppable. Before the peak, we only received less than 1/3 of our oil from other countries. We now depend on about 2/3 or more imported oil used every day in our country
People at that time thought that anyone predicting peak oil in our country was a complete lunatic. They thought of oil, pumped out of US soil, as an infinite, abundant supply that would never disappear. Analysts at that time said we had maybe 30-50 years before we would see oil peak around the rest of the world as well. Our wastefulness and squandering of oil, Earth's most precious resource, has bumped that estimate up even further. Where does that put us, since 1970? Do the math.
So you're wondering, where are all these ideas coming from, and why am I beginning my usual ramblings on this topic all of a sudden? Is this like my Kabbalah phase? No, even though that's pretty funny. (And I still read Kabbalah books, I just don't wear a red string because people didn't take me seriously.) This is a real threat that will affect us all, and I am extremely concerned about my future and all of our collective futures.
Before I go into why I'm thinking about peak oil, just think about this for 5 minutes. That is all I ask of you. Even if you don't believe in oil peaking anytime soon, or even in our lifetime, look at the changes we've already experienced:
- Gas prices have risen to a staggering amount, over $4 per gallon this past summer in the US. (In European countries, prices were already at this level 4 years ago.) Demand is so high in our country, China, and many other countries that daily production is being pushed to the maximum output levels.
- A hurricane or major storm system moving into oil producing areas causes an immediate jump in prices. Since oil is coming out of the ground just as quickly (if not faster) than it is being used, prices jump drastically even within a couple hours. (I have passed stations on the way to work and have seen $3.75 posted, and at 9pm when I leave, the price has jumped to $3.95. In four short hours.)
- The government of our country has done nothing to prepare our nation for a catastrophic event such as a shortage of oil. (Strategic oil reserves, as a friend pointed out, are set up for this purpose. Well, the government does not have to tell us exactly how much oil is in reserve, and what we do know about it, there are roughly 21 billion barrels claimed to exist. We use almost 8 billion barrels in this country a year, and at that rate, the reserves would be depleted within 3 years, not counting continued production or importation from elsewhere.)
What about electric cars? Solar cars? Hydrogen cell cars?
Well, that all sounds great. But for car manufacturers to produce ONE VEHICLE in a plant, it takes around 90 barrels of oil. What happens to production of cars in plants when oil reaches new highs? When oil hits 200 dollars a barrel... 300 dollars... how the hell are you going to afford that car anymore? There is absolutely no way that is possible. Alternative sources of energy are great to pass the buck on to, but in reality, we have already waited too long to make the necessary changes to adapt the entire nation to them.
What about the things we buy?
Alright. As an example of this, China produces almost everything we buy at Walmart. China uses oil to run the factories to produce those goods. We ship those goods on cargo ships run on oil. Trucks deliver those goods to Walmart. We drive to Walmart in our gas guzzlers. Wow. Goodbye, cheap Chinese-made products from Walmart! And goodbye, Walmart! They will go out of business. Oh yea, and plastic is a petroleum based product! That means everything made of plastic, ...well, we know what to say to those!
What about the things we eat?
Land in the US has been destroyed by past farming methods. In order to make anything grow, we pump the ground and the plants we eat full petroleum-based pesticides and chemicals. We use farming equipment and irrigation techniques that are powered by oil. Oil-driven factories process those goods and then ship them via trucks or trains thousands of miles (think California or Florida produce) to your local store. You drive to the store in your gas guzzler, and drive back home. The documentary mentioned an end of the"California Caesar salad". No longer will we be able to afford to ship and purchase lettuce from the other side of the state. Wow. Goodbye, store-bought foods and produce! Say hello to your new friend, the garden shovel and hoe. Oh yea, and be ready to milk a cow if you get a bit thirsty from the gardening.
I believe that within our lifetime, and more so in the not-too-distant future, we will have to discontinue our reliance on fossil fuels as energy. I believe that this may happen within the next 10 years, if not sooner. We have seen gas prices rise in the past few years from $1.25 to $4.25. What happens in 5 years? Will we see gas reach $9.25? $10.25? At that rate, I know that I will no longer be able to fill up my tank and drive to work.
So now I'll tell you where I'm getting all my ideas from. Well, just look at the current global economy, for one thing. Secondly, I watched a documentary last week called The End of Suburbia, shot in 2004. Since then, I have been doing reading and research on my own to educate myself on the topic. The documentary pointed out changes to come, as far as peak oil is concerned, and and the predictions it made have already been seen to come true. As I watched, I was a bit scared of how quickly change can occur and how much more quickly things will continue to change in the near future. Today, I just watched a follow up to that documentary called Escape From Suburbia (2007) in which many more positive notes are emphasized as far as alternative energy usage for the future, small communities which are self-sufficient, and working, fruitful relationships between people and their neighbors. It really made me think that this is the way that real life is meant to be. We are all living in our comfortable little bubbles (all heated by fossil fuels, to be a bit ironic) and we are lazy. We live in an age of WalMarts and McDonalds and SUVs, rather than an age of learning, surviving, and caring for one another and all that life has to offer. The important things life has to offer.
People in our country believe that our economy (no matter how terrible times are right now) is ever-expanding, growing, and continuing to sprawl (an explained concept in End of Suburbia). But in reality, without an infinite supply of oil, the rate at which we grow our economy will level off, and no doubt, will begin to lose steam. Rome, the greatest empire in the world, collapsed. I would hate to see our country or global economy collapse, but I believe we as citizens must begin to plan ahead, no matter how late it may already be, and prepare ourselves for the changes we will need to adjust to when we can no longer afford the oil that drives our economy ahead. If we can't afford it, everything will slow down and eventually come to a halt.
Alright. I will probably bring more points up in the near future in regards to peak oil and many ideals and alternatives that I'm researching. I have begun to think that maybe the plan I have currently chosen for my life is one which I will not be able to maintain over the next 10 years, if things change the way they continue to. But I wanted to highlight a quick anecdote I learned from the second documentary, Escape, that really showcases how wasteful and lazy we as a global race have become, and why the peak of oil is something that will change life as we know it.
"In Canada, whitefish aren't fished for food from [a certain lake] because
they are considered trash fish. What we do is fish them, ship them on barges to
China where Chinese women clean and filet the fish in a factory. The fish are
then packed and shipped back to Canada where we purchase the fish-- to eat."
(an excerpt from Escape From Suburbia)
Links of Interest:
http://www.endofsuburbia.com/ (documentary site, released 2004)
http://www.escapefromsuburbia.com/ (documentary site, released 2007
http://www.ourecovillage.org/ (educational farm and experimental community of the future)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug (52 minute version of The End of Suburbia to watch instantly)
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